Updated Prediction for Euro2012

Tonight, one of the teams I originally picked as favourites for the tournament will be knocked out, as Germany and Italy face each other tonight in the second semi-final tonight in Warsaw. With England having predictably been the first of my picks to get knocked out, I suspect that Italy will be the second, lacking the firepower to overcome the impressive German team. And I further suspect that Germany will spoil the hopes of Spain to achieve the impressive feat of winning three successive international tournaments over the last three years. The belief in the Spanish squad should now be strong, following their hard-fought victory over Portugal last night, and they would probably be good enough to beat the Italian team. But no team in this tournament has matched the fluency and goal-scoring power of the Germans, and it is these qualities which will (probably - just to manage expectations!) take them to the title.

Criticisms coming thick and fast for England team at 2012, but surely it's too early to judge?

My first reaction was: Really? Already? 

Seeing Roy Hodgson already being labelled as being the wrong man for the job after just one game in charge is a little hard to stomach. Is it really necessary for the UK press to round on people so quickly? That the over-quoted and tedious argument of 4-4-2 being 'too rigid' is used as one of the primary explanations behind this analysis, particularly when no-one even takes the effort to explain exactly why it is too rigid (and there are a decent number of decent reasons to those willing to expand on their arguments), preferring to just throw the phrase about as a piece of accepted wisdom, only serves to irritate further.

I know I hark on about this endlessly, but when a manager gets plunged into the deep end, with only the briefest of preparation time ahead of one of the most challenging tournaments around, is it really fair to expect a fluidity of play reminiscent of Barcelona in their pomp? Surely pragmatism is perfectly justified in such a situation and the result yesterday (with Andy Carroll more than justifying his selection) will thankfully go at least some way to silencing those critics for the moment.

And let's face it - England has never produced football teams and players of the Spanish mould, so why not concentrate on what we do best? Scandinavian teams have always been content to play to their strengths (well organised, hard working teams) and have had decent enough success doing so with much more limited resources than England has at their disposal. Do German teams seek to emulate the current world champions or simply carry on forging the best systems and teams that their own unique system can deliver? Please let's give Roy Hodgson the benefit of the doubt for the moment and analyse his performance on a more solid base of results, as that will be the only true measure of whether the culture he is creating (and he will need more time to do so) is the right one for England.

Support for future legacy tournaments

The Times also had an article (reference missing unfortunately) suggesting that in the future, countries like Poland and Ukraine shouldn't have the opportunity to create a legacy from hosting such international tournaments, based largely on the fact that the reporter had to spend the night sitting on the floor in a train. While I'm willing to grant that the logistics around this tournament are unlikely to smoothly deal with the influx of football fans - having seen first hand the pride of local fans and startling development in facilities that has been created in Poland, I'm willing to sacrifice a night of comfort of a journalist who has probably one of the most enjoyable and privileged jobs in the world, in return for this legacy (and its a rare day when I will support a decision by UEFA or FIFA!).

Euro2012 Predictions

With the first round of matches out the way, it seems like a good time to make some, most likely wildly innacurate, predictions. Here are my top 3 teams to win the tournament:

Germany - a good win against Portugal by a team largely made up of Bayern Munich players, still smarting from the Chelsea defeat in the Champions League final, suggests that this is a cohesive and driven team.

Italy - A draw against the World Champions suggest that, as with the last time that allegations of corruption erupted in Italian football, this is a team which performs best when they have their backs against the wall.

England - A selection based more on hope than judgement. Fingers crossed that the lack of weight of expectation on this England team allows them to perform to their very best.

Racism and the European 2012 Championships

There have been a few commentators pointing out that the Euros do not seem to be generating the same level of interest and anticipation as previous tournaments and it seems to be true - it's hard to comprehend that the tournament is just over a week away! Perhaps it is the packed schedule of sports that is dampening the enthusiasm for the event - with the Champions League final barely finished, Promotion play-offs and a thrilling Premier League finale also all filling the airwaves of late, it would not be surprising to hear that all but the most die-hard fans could do with a couple of weeks rest from football (and that's not to mention all the other sports on at the moment - Rugby finals galore, Test Match cricket, Formula One in Monaco and so on...).

But the most likely explanation is that the torrent of negative publicity regarding racism in the host countries - Ukraine and Poland - has eroded enthusiasm for the tournament. A picture has been painted of large groups of fans who regularly abuse players and fellow fans (even from the same team) based on the colour of the skin or their religion (frequently anti-semitic - which is especially upsetting given the history of the region, as highlighted in this very thought provoking article). Having personal experience of living in Poland it is sadly largely true that football there does not have a good reputation. Families shun going to see matches as a direct result of fear of violence from a hardcore groups of fans - violence which, based on personal experience, can even reach as far down as five-a-side football leagues. And although many people would say that it is fine to go and see games so long as you were sensible and keep out of trouble (I must confess I never ventured that far myself), that is surely not the point - how can you enjoy watching the game if you're trying to keep out of harm's way and being witness to racism? And that's before you'd even consider taking the whole family along to enjoy a day out.

And yet I must also point out that this group of fans is a very small minority of trouble makers and I'm sure that all fans who arrive in good spirits to enjoy the football will be welcomed with the warmth and generosity that is characteristic of the vast majority of the population in Poland and Ukraine. My bad experiences in local five-a-side leagues was quickly tempered by the organisers swiftly banning the offending team and the authroities have the opportunity to make a similarly swift statement of intent in case any trouble does arise. The tournament also has the power to promote the sport among a broader populace and push the violent, racist minority to the fringes of the game (and eventually, one would hope, out completely) - just look at the therapeutic effect that Euro 96 had on the game of football in England, going a long way towards ending the hooligan image of English football fans across Europe. I hope the same will be true of Euro 2012...